* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 20 20 21 21 19 16 16 15 17 18 19 22 27 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 20 20 21 21 19 16 16 15 17 18 19 22 27 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 26 25 25 28 27 25 24 28 22 21 20 21 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 -5 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 237 241 233 232 220 229 239 235 242 255 243 231 228 218 219 199 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.5 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 114 111 109 109 110 110 108 106 108 110 111 112 119 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 104 100 98 98 100 98 95 90 94 99 103 105 113 115 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 56 53 51 48 42 38 34 32 30 29 29 26 29 30 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 12 11 16 26 26 -1 -31 -74 -81 -87 -45 1 48 71 90 87 200 MB DIV 15 -16 -6 -31 -43 -16 -14 -15 -14 -8 -14 -39 -10 -26 -10 -49 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -2 0 1 3 12 7 -8 -19 -27 -23 -17 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 895 1023 1114 1147 1160 1139 1151 1159 1201 1197 1152 1126 1182 1355 1554 1741 1933 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 20.1 21.7 23.4 24.7 25.3 24.7 23.2 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.4 26.5 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 4 4 7 9 8 5 1 5 10 12 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.5 25.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/12/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 20 20 21 21 19 16 16 15 17 18 19 22 27 32 18HR AGO 20 19 19 18 18 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT