* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 25 24 25 27 31 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 25 24 25 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 20 23 24 22 26 21 23 24 29 26 26 25 24 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 -6 -7 -4 -4 -6 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 225 233 226 229 230 218 213 220 228 226 234 249 245 230 228 212 229 SST (C) 27.3 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 118 115 114 113 111 110 114 112 114 115 111 115 115 117 119 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 114 109 106 104 99 99 104 102 102 99 94 101 104 108 112 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 55 52 46 43 38 37 34 35 34 31 30 28 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 32 19 10 22 45 55 31 10 -34 -61 -65 -63 -48 -19 -8 15 200 MB DIV -1 8 25 -8 -1 -43 -17 -13 -16 -21 -15 -3 -19 -1 -20 -27 -31 700-850 TADV -6 -1 1 -5 -8 0 0 3 12 14 2 -5 -14 -24 -29 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 655 835 980 1100 1194 1303 1328 1382 1459 1532 1572 1562 1546 1587 1720 1924 2145 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.6 22.5 24.2 25.4 25.8 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.8 26.1 27.2 28.1 29.2 29.6 30.3 31.1 31.7 31.9 31.7 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 10 8 4 5 10 9 8 4 1 6 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 3 4 1 1 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. -0. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -22. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 7. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.7 23.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/12/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 25 24 25 27 31 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 25 24 25 27 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 19 21 21 22 21 21 21 22 21 22 24 28 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT