* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 46 49 51 51 52 49 45 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 46 49 51 51 52 49 45 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 6 11 16 16 21 17 19 20 30 34 39 35 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 6 3 2 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -7 -10 -6 0 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 45 120 239 215 196 200 189 201 208 224 228 229 240 237 233 241 242 SST (C) 27.8 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 126 122 123 124 124 117 114 115 114 117 119 118 117 118 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 126 120 118 118 116 108 104 107 105 107 108 104 101 100 98 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 64 62 56 53 48 43 41 39 41 42 42 44 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 97 99 87 59 48 28 42 62 49 36 2 -27 -48 -66 -68 -73 -51 200 MB DIV 4 5 -13 6 14 -3 -41 -41 -30 -6 0 7 1 12 16 13 19 700-850 TADV -17 -16 -9 -4 2 -4 0 0 1 6 12 14 9 5 -3 -7 -17 LAND (KM) 393 580 743 885 1005 1200 1364 1480 1616 1712 1855 1974 2082 2164 2210 2232 2226 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.4 19.9 21.5 23.2 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.1 22.9 24.4 25.7 26.8 28.6 30.1 31.1 32.2 33.4 34.9 36.1 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 14 12 10 8 6 6 9 10 11 9 7 5 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 4 2 3 4 10 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 3 8 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. 24. 20. 16. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 21.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.2% 9.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 15.4% 14.1% 8.9% 2.9% 8.1% 3.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 10.2% 8.4% 5.8% 1.0% 2.9% 4.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 46 49 51 51 52 49 45 41 39 37 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 39 43 46 48 48 49 46 42 38 36 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 38 41 43 43 44 41 37 33 31 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 30 33 35 35 36 33 29 25 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT