* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 52 55 55 54 49 46 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 52 55 55 54 49 46 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 34 34 34 33 33 32 31 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 4 6 17 18 19 17 20 22 25 30 30 25 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 8 4 3 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 -6 -10 -5 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 42 46 132 170 192 204 205 201 215 226 244 235 245 242 240 237 243 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 132 129 129 125 122 118 118 117 118 118 115 114 114 116 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 132 127 125 118 114 109 109 108 108 105 100 97 99 100 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 65 65 60 56 50 45 41 41 40 39 39 40 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 106 91 86 82 62 36 24 51 46 32 1 -42 -74 -70 -74 -55 -47 200 MB DIV 7 14 10 -1 4 0 -37 -52 -21 -3 -5 8 4 -2 10 23 -13 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -7 -5 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 10 6 -3 -7 -13 -18 LAND (KM) 240 385 548 699 841 1083 1281 1420 1562 1647 1751 1841 1898 1943 1993 2071 2139 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.5 20.1 21.7 23.3 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 25.3 27.5 29.3 30.5 31.7 32.8 33.9 34.8 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 10 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 7 4 4 5 6 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 25. 27. 30. 30. 29. 24. 21. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 19.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.9% 7.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.1% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.5% 4.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 3.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/11/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 52 55 55 54 49 46 45 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 34 38 43 48 50 53 53 52 47 44 43 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 46 49 49 48 43 40 39 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 38 41 41 40 35 32 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT