* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 42 47 50 54 56 58 57 54 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 37 42 47 50 54 56 58 57 54 51 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 38 38 38 38 37 35 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 9 7 10 16 15 15 15 20 17 26 25 30 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 10 7 4 2 -2 -1 1 0 -3 -4 -7 -9 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 86 86 116 156 186 196 199 207 204 221 235 235 237 238 229 230 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 135 135 134 129 128 125 122 118 118 118 119 116 114 114 115 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 135 135 134 126 123 117 113 108 109 108 108 103 99 97 100 103 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 67 68 63 56 51 45 43 40 41 42 42 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 98 106 92 93 92 55 36 37 50 44 22 -8 -43 -65 -74 -58 -55 200 MB DIV 29 9 16 16 13 8 -26 -35 -15 -14 -11 -17 -2 -6 0 -18 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -13 -10 -5 4 -1 0 0 3 8 12 10 5 -5 -15 -18 LAND (KM) 43 224 348 497 634 884 1103 1272 1403 1532 1632 1761 1843 1910 1964 2000 2066 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.9 20.5 22.1 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.2 19.0 20.6 22.1 23.4 25.7 27.7 29.2 30.3 31.5 32.7 34.0 34.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 14 13 11 9 7 7 10 10 10 7 4 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 10 10 5 4 5 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 32. 29. 26. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 17.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.1% 8.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 12.8% 10.8% 7.5% 2.6% 5.9% 2.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 8.8% 6.7% 5.1% 0.9% 2.0% 3.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/11/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 37 42 47 50 54 56 58 57 54 51 50 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 35 40 45 48 52 54 56 55 52 49 48 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 35 40 43 47 49 51 50 47 44 43 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 33 36 40 42 44 43 40 37 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT