* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 09/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 43 46 49 50 51 53 54 52 52 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 32 35 41 46 49 51 52 54 56 57 55 54 57 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 30 31 33 36 39 41 40 38 36 35 33 32 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 17 13 8 8 17 22 24 25 26 26 26 20 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 1 0 -1 3 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 78 59 75 74 90 88 207 233 235 236 238 243 247 253 244 236 211 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 134 132 134 128 123 120 116 118 117 115 114 111 115 117 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 134 131 132 124 117 113 107 108 107 103 99 94 101 105 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 71 72 73 71 65 57 49 45 45 43 41 38 33 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 95 93 82 85 73 40 29 46 36 15 -35 -80 -82 -66 -42 -9 200 MB DIV 78 50 35 32 36 23 -13 -30 -8 -13 7 -18 -3 -22 -8 -36 -25 700-850 TADV -11 -18 -7 -7 -6 -5 4 0 5 8 14 13 7 -6 -16 -23 -20 LAND (KM) -19 22 173 290 379 603 824 1047 1203 1302 1417 1509 1550 1537 1513 1546 1659 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.2 16.5 17.5 18.9 20.3 22.2 23.9 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 15.3 17.0 18.4 19.7 20.9 23.1 25.0 26.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 31.5 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 8 5 1 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 5 6 11 5 3 3 1 2 2 1 5 3 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 28. 29. 27. 27. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 15.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 09/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.1% 7.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.2% 4.7% 1.7% 0.7% 3.1% 4.7% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.6% 0.5% Consensus: 1.9% 7.2% 4.4% 2.7% 0.2% 1.2% 5.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 09/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 31 32 35 41 46 49 51 52 54 56 57 55 54 57 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 36 41 44 46 47 49 51 52 50 49 52 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 36 39 41 42 44 46 47 45 44 47 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 32 34 35 37 39 40 38 37 40 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT