* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 08/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 56 60 65 71 74 77 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 56 60 65 71 74 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 40 44 48 53 59 66 73 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 11 14 11 17 19 16 17 17 15 13 15 18 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 0 -2 -3 -3 -8 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 346 344 328 332 343 2 4 19 1 351 348 355 18 43 48 81 76 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 133 137 140 144 147 152 152 143 147 151 168 167 164 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 127 130 134 138 144 147 152 152 142 146 148 161 156 147 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 55 53 53 53 55 59 59 59 64 66 66 63 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 2 -7 -13 -15 -16 0 9 24 20 61 45 59 34 54 17 200 MB DIV 6 -6 -10 -7 8 18 12 -1 9 54 9 22 27 46 18 15 -18 700-850 TADV 5 -2 0 0 3 0 -4 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1220 1194 1151 1105 968 715 455 411 385 347 237 201 91 67 252 212 157 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.0 14.4 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.1 49.3 50.6 52.0 53.4 56.0 59.0 62.1 65.2 68.1 71.0 74.0 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 18 28 36 46 39 38 44 76 45 50 44 89 86 75 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 40. 46. 49. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 48.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.8% 9.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 7.2% 6.1% 2.4% 0.6% 2.8% 2.2% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 7.3% 5.5% 3.5% 0.2% 1.0% 3.9% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/09/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 56 60 65 71 74 77 80 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 43 48 51 55 59 64 70 73 76 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 35 40 45 48 52 56 61 67 70 73 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 33 38 41 45 49 54 60 63 66 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT