* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 08/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 30 35 41 47 50 54 59 63 68 71 75 78 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 30 35 41 47 50 54 59 63 68 66 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 31 34 36 39 42 46 50 46 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 8 10 15 12 19 24 19 15 17 16 14 11 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 2 -3 -2 -5 -7 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 46 23 356 335 321 332 342 345 360 356 328 324 331 358 18 16 37 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.4 28.8 29.7 30.3 30.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 128 128 128 136 144 147 149 150 151 144 150 164 171 170 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 124 125 125 134 142 147 149 147 149 140 146 157 163 154 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 57 56 57 58 57 59 62 62 62 66 66 69 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 1 0 1 -10 -24 -28 -6 -7 9 8 39 20 19 -11 13 200 MB DIV 0 10 -3 -3 1 2 24 40 15 15 27 -7 42 19 26 -11 21 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 0 6 1 -1 0 2 -3 -1 0 4 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 1304 1240 1206 1176 1145 944 699 491 447 237 189 101 46 100 5 -51 57 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.1 48.4 49.7 51.1 53.8 56.6 59.6 62.7 65.5 68.1 70.8 73.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 13 14 15 15 13 13 13 13 11 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 11 13 17 36 49 39 31 67 65 32 36 46 71 54 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 22. 25. 29. 34. 38. 43. 46. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 45.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.8% 7.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.6% 3.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 1.9% 5.6% 3.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.6% 4.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/09/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 30 35 41 47 50 54 59 63 68 66 50 50 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 29 34 40 46 49 53 58 62 67 65 49 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 25 30 36 42 45 49 54 58 63 61 45 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 24 30 36 39 43 48 52 57 55 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT