* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 08/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 56 59 63 66 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 56 41 39 41 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 41 44 36 31 38 42 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 5 6 8 15 17 17 23 14 16 17 18 19 10 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 4 4 -2 -4 -5 -5 2 -2 -7 -4 -3 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 45 52 38 355 338 316 340 339 346 343 318 306 315 318 330 337 356 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.3 29.0 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 127 129 128 134 139 147 145 148 154 149 148 157 151 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 126 125 132 137 147 144 144 148 143 140 149 139 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 60 57 57 56 58 57 62 65 64 66 65 67 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 3 3 0 2 -14 -21 -17 -12 1 -6 12 -8 -25 -34 -30 200 MB DIV 0 0 13 3 -1 12 29 35 49 -1 8 -9 27 -2 16 -1 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -3 2 3 1 0 6 4 1 3 1 5 5 7 LAND (KM) 1346 1270 1224 1188 1159 1031 798 589 496 208 48 15 -67 12 56 140 247 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 46.1 47.4 48.8 50.1 52.9 55.7 58.7 61.7 64.4 66.6 68.9 71.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 12 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 13 14 32 41 58 26 48 63 36 23 37 39 42 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 31. 34. 38. 41. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 44.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.0% 8.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 11.4% 7.0% 1.3% 0.5% 3.0% 3.2% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.1% Consensus: 3.0% 9.3% 5.5% 2.8% 0.2% 1.2% 4.4% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/08/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 56 41 39 41 45 49 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 30 34 39 44 47 50 54 39 37 39 43 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 29 34 39 42 45 49 34 32 34 38 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 27 32 35 38 42 27 25 27 31 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT