* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 08/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 45 48 52 56 61 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 45 48 52 56 61 63 64 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 24 27 29 31 34 35 37 39 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 8 4 6 8 13 11 22 18 21 18 20 21 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 2 4 0 -4 -2 -7 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 62 48 59 76 59 358 336 357 344 354 6 352 340 336 332 351 8 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.6 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 29.4 29.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 123 124 125 133 130 139 144 147 150 150 150 143 160 166 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 119 121 122 130 128 137 144 147 150 149 150 141 157 158 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 11 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 64 63 60 58 57 57 56 61 62 68 70 71 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 0 -8 -13 -12 -15 -16 -7 0 7 15 16 9 32 28 5 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -10 0 1 1 -2 29 27 43 16 21 0 17 8 51 -5 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 6 5 -4 2 -1 -2 -7 3 -3 4 5 13 16 11 LAND (KM) 1532 1492 1435 1356 1279 1157 1037 849 556 337 367 385 312 138 33 11 49 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.7 14.4 13.8 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.4 43.5 44.8 46.1 48.8 51.5 54.1 56.9 59.8 62.7 65.2 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 13 14 12 14 15 13 13 14 15 14 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 11 11 16 27 39 45 32 52 39 79 34 43 46 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 32. 36. 41. 43. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 41.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.9% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 3.0% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/08/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 45 48 52 56 61 63 64 57 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 23 27 33 40 44 47 51 55 60 62 63 56 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 19 23 29 36 40 43 47 51 56 58 59 52 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT