* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 08/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 86 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 36 41 47 54 63 71 77 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 15 13 7 9 8 11 7 10 8 12 5 10 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 -7 -6 -5 -2 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 62 59 56 44 48 45 18 351 4 343 11 3 12 320 325 285 317 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 125 125 125 133 129 134 144 143 146 148 147 148 147 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 119 121 121 121 130 126 131 143 141 146 147 146 147 144 160 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 70 67 66 61 57 58 60 59 58 58 58 59 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 13 7 -4 -8 1 -5 -6 2 11 18 23 24 19 6 -13 200 MB DIV 11 11 5 -12 -24 -4 13 14 10 28 18 9 12 -12 27 5 42 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 2 -7 -2 -3 -5 -6 -1 0 2 4 8 5 LAND (KM) 1580 1532 1477 1412 1361 1229 1120 1009 933 737 510 352 400 345 183 80 -49 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.7 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.3 40.9 41.7 42.7 43.7 45.9 48.1 50.5 52.7 54.9 57.2 59.7 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 7 9 15 16 24 33 50 46 32 44 41 73 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 21. 28. 33. 40. 48. 53. 60. 64. 64. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 40.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 2.3% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 59 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 32 40 47 52 59 67 72 79 83 83 58 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 28 36 43 48 55 63 68 75 79 79 54 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT