* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 06/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 39 39 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 39 39 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 25 24 23 21 18 16 18 23 25 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 19 26 33 48 64 83 90 87 52 34 29 24 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 0 0 -9 -10 -17 -6 -2 3 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 233 245 223 219 233 249 259 278 290 302 309 311 304 302 243 221 219 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.2 24.3 24.6 15.4 5.9 10.9 11.1 12.5 13.2 13.2 12.5 12.5 10.5 0.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 114 110 104 108 76 70 72 71 70 68 67 67 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 102 100 98 95 101 73 69 71 69 67 65 64 64 64 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 -57.1 -56.4 -55.1 -53.3 -52.2 -50.6 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 57 58 66 68 72 75 78 56 44 48 54 58 53 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 11 10 11 13 16 16 13 11 13 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 43 33 35 26 26 21 26 27 -6 -9 -9 15 25 35 68 70 18 200 MB DIV 71 25 20 43 55 49 67 52 54 12 -20 -9 -6 -8 39 26 15 700-850 TADV 1 5 8 11 14 29 72 122 112 103 57 19 7 22 0 -24 -45 LAND (KM) 198 217 217 288 430 498 321 117 807 1511 949 566 303 142 23 -34 138 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.8 33.4 34.2 35.3 38.6 42.7 46.8 49.5 50.5 50.7 51.0 51.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 76.1 74.8 73.1 71.0 65.7 59.2 51.5 42.0 31.9 23.8 18.3 14.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 14 18 22 30 33 35 34 30 21 14 11 12 14 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. 10. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. -2. -16. -33. -53. -66. -75. -88. -93. -94. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 4. 0. -4. -1. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 19. 19. 13. 3. -15. -30. -44. -52. -50. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 32.3 77.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 06/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 06/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 06/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 29 37 39 39 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 35 37 37 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 30 32 32 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT