* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 25 25 24 24 26 26 26 26 29 32 36 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 25 25 24 24 26 26 26 26 29 32 36 38 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 26 25 30 27 30 27 36 32 28 25 22 20 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 -3 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 278 284 289 292 288 300 294 302 288 289 279 272 271 264 262 254 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 160 160 159 160 162 160 159 160 159 159 161 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 154 154 154 155 152 154 156 154 150 148 145 146 147 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 12 13 12 12 10 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 56 59 55 58 55 60 63 71 74 76 74 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -27 -27 -24 -11 7 0 7 7 40 30 64 58 74 84 99 98 200 MB DIV 2 2 4 -4 -5 -11 -2 -5 -1 18 27 38 40 42 23 37 54 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -8 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 5 6 6 3 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 467 449 445 467 462 336 247 250 217 182 189 210 161 133 74 -9 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.4 60.4 61.2 62.1 62.9 64.7 66.5 68.2 70.1 72.1 73.8 75.0 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 5 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 55 58 57 55 62 78 107 56 65 93 77 67 68 67 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -19. -24. -26. -26. -27. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 59.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.2% 7.2% 5.6% 3.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 25 25 24 24 26 26 26 26 29 32 36 38 35 37 18HR AGO 30 29 28 25 25 24 24 26 26 26 26 29 32 36 38 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 23 22 22 24 24 24 24 27 30 34 36 33 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 21 21 21 21 24 27 31 33 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT