* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 25 25 26 26 31 33 37 37 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 25 25 26 26 31 33 31 30 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 27 28 29 29 32 27 30 28 34 30 28 27 27 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 0 -2 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 282 284 288 290 285 296 295 303 289 288 285 274 262 256 243 236 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 159 158 160 158 160 160 160 160 161 162 162 163 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 152 152 156 153 153 153 154 153 152 148 148 149 154 153 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 57 58 58 55 56 56 60 65 71 74 76 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 4 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -30 -28 -30 -6 -14 -4 -7 12 25 47 66 82 85 109 89 200 MB DIV 3 10 1 -15 -10 -14 -10 -13 -19 6 5 29 33 38 36 43 38 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -8 -7 -8 -5 -2 -4 0 -3 4 5 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 531 495 473 464 467 446 256 167 156 117 112 81 44 -5 -28 42 190 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.5 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 58.8 59.5 60.2 61.0 62.8 64.9 66.7 68.6 70.5 72.7 74.5 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 9 9 10 10 8 5 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 56 53 51 53 55 62 79 97 75 52 62 62 63 68 93 154 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -9. -10. -8. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. 1. 3. 7. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 57.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.7% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 25 25 26 26 31 33 31 30 34 35 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 25 25 26 26 31 33 31 30 34 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 22 21 23 23 24 24 29 31 29 28 32 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 17 16 18 18 19 19 24 26 24 23 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT