* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 22 21 19 19 18 20 25 31 34 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 22 21 19 19 18 20 23 29 27 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 30 33 30 28 32 28 29 21 30 27 21 20 27 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 5 5 4 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 -7 -7 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 258 262 269 277 280 270 274 278 289 280 281 292 303 294 295 294 277 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.4 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 147 150 149 150 154 156 156 153 156 159 159 157 159 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 145 146 144 142 145 148 150 146 148 149 148 148 153 162 158 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 62 63 65 65 67 63 63 61 60 57 55 54 56 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -19 -24 -26 -35 -40 -33 -27 -38 -26 -43 -34 -35 -14 -7 12 23 200 MB DIV 23 48 47 30 36 23 11 10 11 9 -30 -11 -2 -18 -4 18 37 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -10 -13 -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -3 -2 -6 -3 -6 -2 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 826 849 871 890 824 750 691 653 630 471 259 77 0 0 -2 32 55 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.4 52.5 53.4 54.2 55.5 56.7 58.0 59.6 61.5 63.4 65.0 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 9 8 8 9 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 46 63 56 55 60 71 74 60 49 58 84 79 73 50 60 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25. -25. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -5. 1. 4. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 50.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 28 27 25 22 21 19 19 18 20 23 29 27 31 33 18HR AGO 30 29 29 27 26 24 21 20 18 18 17 19 22 28 26 30 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 21 18 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT