* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 38 41 40 41 40 38 37 37 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 38 41 40 41 40 38 37 37 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 33 32 30 28 26 25 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 14 17 13 3 3 9 8 12 16 17 24 23 31 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 7 9 7 9 13 11 10 8 7 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 84 72 80 88 15 35 261 252 265 250 249 240 243 236 235 224 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 24.7 24.4 24.5 24.1 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 118 117 117 104 102 103 100 101 98 97 98 97 95 94 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 110 110 111 99 97 97 91 91 86 85 87 87 86 84 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 68 68 59 57 56 52 49 49 45 41 40 35 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 37 43 49 44 30 16 -27 -85 -110 -112 -95 -65 -39 -32 19 200 MB DIV 22 5 8 11 -1 12 -15 -2 3 -10 -5 3 2 -26 -26 -38 -44 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -7 -9 -10 -4 6 24 17 26 4 -5 -22 -15 -21 -13 -11 LAND (KM) 329 308 296 306 334 521 714 901 1109 1288 1349 1279 1111 944 779 700 717 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.1 17.0 19.3 21.8 24.1 26.3 27.9 28.6 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.0 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.8 23.6 25.7 27.5 28.7 28.6 27.5 25.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 8 9 13 15 16 13 11 6 6 9 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 20.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.2% 6.8% 4.6% 1.8% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.3% 5.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 38 41 40 41 40 38 37 37 36 36 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 32 35 37 40 39 40 39 37 36 36 35 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 32 34 37 36 37 36 34 33 33 32 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 25 27 30 29 30 29 27 26 26 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT