* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/11/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 33 41 47 55 61 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 33 41 47 55 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 21 23 25 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 11 6 2 2 4 7 8 8 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 6 7 12 11 5 4 3 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 72 70 67 75 86 170 41 164 204 278 305 283 303 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.8 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 127 125 121 124 120 125 129 133 138 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 127 125 121 124 120 125 129 133 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 47 45 46 45 45 46 47 49 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 48 31 18 9 0 -4 8 9 16 19 34 200 MB DIV -34 -48 -53 -52 -12 30 19 -3 3 3 11 26 15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -8 -6 -4 2 LAND (KM) 1818 1918 1832 1752 1659 1439 1238 1020 810 647 454 117 144 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.5 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.5 11.5 11.6 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.2 35.3 36.4 37.6 40.5 43.5 46.7 50.0 53.5 56.9 60.3 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 8 6 3 11 1 6 6 25 19 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 35. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 33.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/11/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.8% 3.0% 2.8% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/11/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 33 41 47 55 61 65 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 32 40 46 54 60 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 23 29 37 43 51 57 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT