* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902020 11/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 59 60 60 58 58 53 44 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 59 60 60 58 58 53 44 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 60 61 61 60 61 63 62 57 46 34 24 25 26 27 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 15 19 20 26 25 41 64 80 84 79 63 57 63 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 2 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -7 -11 -10 -7 0 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 15 345 309 300 271 274 267 253 253 253 266 270 271 263 268 275 268 SST (C) 16.5 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.6 20.0 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.1 21.9 21.9 21.6 19.0 18.1 17.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 75 77 79 80 81 77 77 82 85 88 87 86 86 78 78 78 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 73 74 74 73 69 71 75 78 80 79 77 78 74 74 75 108 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -56.2 -57.0 -56.6 -56.3 -56.8 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 48 51 60 62 60 51 49 47 42 33 29 28 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 28 26 25 22 20 18 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 182 206 214 208 208 178 202 178 186 158 116 76 48 23 16 -45 200 MB DIV -38 -34 -47 -22 -11 -5 -13 -32 -50 -55 -57 -42 -60 0 0 12 -32 700-850 TADV 68 25 -8 -6 -4 3 2 5 -3 -4 -12 -24 -39 -59 -28 -27 -36 LAND (KM) 820 898 953 959 843 752 893 1177 1148 897 647 467 271 18 -332 -781 -999 LAT (DEG N) 41.6 39.3 37.0 35.1 34.0 34.4 35.6 35.2 32.5 30.3 29.9 30.1 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.9 19.6 19.8 19.4 18.5 17.3 18.7 22.0 23.7 22.2 19.4 17.1 15.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 21 16 10 6 11 15 14 13 11 9 12 17 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 21 CX,CY: -1/-20 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -7. -15. -26. -37. -46. -53. -57. -62. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. 16. 10. 2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -24. -30. -34. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. -2. -11. -23. -37. -51. -65. -75. -83. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 41.6 18.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902020 INVEST 11/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902020 INVEST 11/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 59 60 60 58 58 53 44 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 58 58 56 56 51 42 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 54 52 52 47 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 46 44 44 39 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT