* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 10/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 48 50 49 48 49 46 40 33 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 48 50 49 48 49 46 40 33 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 53 53 51 49 47 46 43 40 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 22 31 32 26 18 11 9 15 20 23 27 45 40 35 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -8 -8 -3 -6 -6 0 2 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 6 15 13 SHEAR DIR 263 289 312 330 342 320 305 267 242 207 205 215 218 240 272 286 278 SST (C) 22.9 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.2 23.7 23.0 21.4 20.7 17.8 15.7 14.5 14.0 14.1 13.1 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 91 93 95 97 95 92 85 82 74 71 71 71 71 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 75 77 79 80 82 82 80 75 73 68 67 68 68 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -55.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.4 -57.1 -58.0 -57.9 -58.9 -60.3 -63.0 -63.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 51 52 53 60 65 64 65 59 57 62 59 48 38 30 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 23 22 21 22 22 20 21 20 17 14 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 164 168 166 160 158 177 181 146 119 63 21 16 26 -62 -138 -185 -135 200 MB DIV 29 7 -12 -14 6 54 24 52 44 42 75 77 29 18 -20 -22 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 0 -1 1 5 7 2 2 2 -19 -12 8 -2 17 25 LAND (KM) 1396 1438 1481 1533 1586 1682 1662 1560 1417 1298 1264 1391 1487 1026 574 292 276 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.2 35.8 35.4 34.9 34.5 35.4 37.2 39.4 41.8 44.1 46.2 47.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.1 42.9 42.7 42.5 41.3 40.1 39.2 38.8 38.3 37.3 34.6 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 5 5 5 8 10 12 12 13 15 19 21 19 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -19. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -10. -10. -13. -18. -23. -28. -30. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 1. -5. -12. -23. -31. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 43.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 4.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 10/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 10/31/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 48 48 48 50 49 48 49 46 40 33 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 45 47 46 45 46 43 37 30 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 43 42 41 42 39 33 26 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 37 36 35 36 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT