* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 34 33 34 33 29 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 34 33 34 33 29 25 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 30 28 25 29 26 18 16 15 23 30 37 47 49 50 44 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -3 -7 -2 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -8 -6 -6 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 279 292 298 299 287 308 276 283 221 254 236 236 229 237 237 246 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 30.0 30.4 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 30.5 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 148 153 167 170 165 160 159 157 155 160 162 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 132 130 130 135 148 156 142 135 134 133 129 136 142 159 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 66 66 67 69 66 65 58 57 49 46 46 46 50 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -28 -28 -30 -21 -10 -4 -9 -7 -3 -21 -30 -49 -72 -79 -87 -68 200 MB DIV 32 26 39 22 13 1 41 16 23 0 -5 -19 35 31 41 37 30 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 3 2 2 6 7 1 2 -1 1 0 -2 -11 -12 -19 LAND (KM) 69 86 103 110 106 137 223 334 427 421 405 399 389 346 277 192 140 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.9 22.9 24.0 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 91.3 91.4 91.4 91.3 91.2 91.0 90.8 90.3 89.8 89.2 88.5 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 4 2 3 3 1 4 9 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 26 23 24 26 45 50 31 36 52 74 93 90 80 61 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -24. -32. -39. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 14. 13. 9. 5. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 91.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1% 3.5% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.2% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/06/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 34 33 34 33 29 25 23 22 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 24 27 29 32 33 32 33 32 28 24 22 21 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 23 25 28 29 28 29 28 24 20 18 17 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT