* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 29 31 36 38 39 41 42 41 43 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 30 32 31 28 27 31 32 32 33 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 28 31 30 30 27 27 27 30 30 29 29 27 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 9 18 11 19 20 26 28 29 32 28 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 8 10 5 0 1 -2 -6 -3 -4 1 -6 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 281 277 269 264 290 259 305 271 293 266 287 282 296 267 276 266 271 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 153 153 148 148 154 156 155 162 150 153 159 161 164 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 148 146 140 139 144 144 141 148 136 137 143 145 150 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 10 8 11 7 700-500 MB RH 66 62 59 58 57 59 60 62 64 63 66 68 68 71 70 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 1 -12 -30 -40 -34 -32 -33 -25 -13 -4 8 19 20 35 30 200 MB DIV 15 4 0 -15 -40 -15 28 11 21 25 56 53 16 22 36 32 28 700-850 TADV 3 8 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -9 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 248 110 22 3 24 133 128 -12 -160 -36 113 244 315 207 88 -82 -285 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.9 17.1 18.2 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.2 83.0 83.5 84.0 85.0 86.4 87.6 89.0 90.1 91.5 92.7 93.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 20 29 34 27 42 63 43 4 34 25 22 27 32 33 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. -15. -14. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 81.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.3% 7.0% 6.4% 4.5% 8.2% 9.1% 13.6% Logistic: 3.8% 6.0% 6.4% 6.0% 0.9% 3.1% 1.8% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.9% 4.1% 1.8% 4.1% 3.7% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 29 29 30 32 31 28 27 31 32 32 33 34 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 29 31 30 27 26 30 31 31 32 33 29 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 28 27 24 23 27 28 28 29 30 26 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 23 22 19 18 22 23 23 24 25 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT