* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 40 44 49 54 57 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 40 44 49 54 57 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 29 31 34 39 46 53 56 58 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 22 17 25 21 22 11 11 4 5 6 3 8 4 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -4 -1 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 315 325 328 312 299 300 285 252 251 158 176 131 50 129 238 240 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.8 25.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 128 127 126 125 130 141 142 141 134 126 124 116 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 118 116 116 114 112 111 114 123 122 121 114 107 106 103 91 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 49 51 55 55 51 49 48 46 44 44 46 52 56 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -19 -17 -1 -6 -3 5 -5 -9 -27 -47 -73 -102 -124 -115 -77 -57 200 MB DIV -1 14 21 15 20 55 16 31 -1 9 -19 -18 0 -3 24 8 25 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 3 0 3 4 -1 1 2 0 2 -2 0 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 1316 1417 1498 1544 1592 1732 1823 1856 1892 1905 1913 1806 1572 1364 1168 972 980 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.1 26.0 27.5 28.9 30.5 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.3 48.9 48.9 49.3 50.0 50.9 51.5 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 10 10 10 14 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 28 35 29 16 21 15 18 29 32 24 12 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 49.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 5.2% Logistic: 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 40 44 49 54 57 58 59 61 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 35 37 39 43 48 53 56 57 58 60 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 31 33 35 39 44 49 52 53 54 56 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 25 27 29 33 38 43 46 47 48 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT