* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 136 134 126 120 109 97 87 75 66 57 56 60 66 69 67 64 V (KT) LAND 130 119 93 66 49 34 29 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 130 136 96 68 49 34 29 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 16 23 13 15 16 26 32 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 1 10 0 2 1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 283 269 283 281 262 270 254 267 252 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.9 30.3 31.2 31.5 30.8 30.3 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 171 170 170 171 172 165 165 160 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 144 150 165 170 157 149 139 138 134 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 4 7 2 4 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 73 73 70 61 49 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 24 23 22 18 17 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -23 -32 -63 -61 -18 -21 20 59 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 19 19 22 31 91 16 48 26 16 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 14 13 9 13 9 3 -4 -2 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 -6 -44 -75 -141 -293 -438 -612 -580 -417 -190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.2 29.9 30.7 31.4 33.0 34.6 36.1 37.2 38.3 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.2 90.8 91.0 91.1 90.6 89.0 86.5 83.7 80.5 77.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 41 23 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 2. 2. -2. -11. -22. -31. -40. -47. -50. -52. -56. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 3. 5. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. 0. -1. -6. -8. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 4. -4. -10. -21. -33. -43. -55. -64. -73. -74. -70. -64. -61. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 28.5 89.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.4% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 33.4% 29.3% 22.6% 14.0% 4.9% 5.1% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.4% 15.8% 7.6% 4.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 25.0% 22.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 0( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 119 93 66 49 34 29 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 130 129 103 76 59 44 39 37 37 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 130 127 126 99 82 67 62 60 60 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 103 88 83 81 81 82 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 96 91 89 89 90 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 IN 6HR 130 119 110 104 101 95 90 88 88 89 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 IN 12HR 130 119 93 84 78 74 69 67 67 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 69