* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 65 63 55 50 49 47 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 63 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 63 54 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 19 21 13 13 25 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 -3 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 326 357 356 332 352 328 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.8 29.5 28.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 156 155 164 159 150 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 134 133 141 139 132 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 12 10 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 62 65 65 68 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 21 21 20 17 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 16 31 32 27 48 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 3 14 53 44 20 47 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -9 -2 -9 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 153 91 44 -24 -174 -357 -413 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.2 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.4 96.3 97.0 97.7 99.2 101.0 102.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 35 22 22 33 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 13. 5. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.3 94.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 33.1% 20.6% 13.3% 11.5% 12.8% 13.8% 14.0% Logistic: 19.0% 36.0% 27.5% 23.9% 12.7% 18.1% 11.5% 8.0% Bayesian: 9.8% 27.6% 11.6% 6.8% 0.9% 2.5% 0.6% 7.0% Consensus: 13.0% 32.2% 19.9% 14.7% 8.4% 11.1% 8.7% 9.7% DTOPS: 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 63 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 47 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 39 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT