* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 47 49 50 50 49 49 48 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 47 49 50 50 49 49 48 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 37 36 34 33 33 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 9 8 3 11 11 15 22 30 29 37 26 25 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 -3 0 3 5 0 -2 2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 147 160 178 184 195 193 206 231 239 261 278 304 319 323 348 30 54 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 117 119 118 125 133 135 137 139 137 138 132 128 121 113 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 117 119 118 125 133 135 137 139 136 129 119 111 104 97 94 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 64 67 66 65 62 61 61 63 64 62 61 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 78 68 72 75 66 46 23 -11 -15 -66 -107 -148 -131 -156 -137 -123 200 MB DIV 0 4 27 51 45 19 31 14 4 19 25 45 14 -8 7 -11 -21 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 1 4 8 10 -1 26 13 23 12 5 -14 LAND (KM) 1625 1526 1410 1284 1165 967 882 636 551 44 176 444 713 812 723 730 766 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.7 16.2 18.4 20.9 23.8 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.1 39.8 41.4 43.1 44.8 48.6 52.5 56.7 61.0 65.3 68.8 71.2 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 22 20 16 12 10 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 2 8 5 24 29 23 42 22 19 10 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 24. 23. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 38.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.8% 8.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 14.6% 7.8% 2.6% 1.4% 8.5% 11.2% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 8.7% Consensus: 2.6% 10.2% 5.6% 3.2% 0.5% 3.0% 7.1% 10.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 47 49 50 50 49 49 48 49 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 38 43 45 47 48 48 47 47 46 47 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 39 41 43 44 44 43 43 42 43 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 33 35 36 36 35 35 34 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT