* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 39 42 48 54 58 65 67 68 67 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 39 42 48 54 58 65 67 68 67 60 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 43 44 44 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 18 17 11 4 4 5 10 14 15 23 27 32 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 1 3 8 8 7 5 3 3 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 91 87 89 92 95 100 111 210 283 239 251 231 249 251 258 272 309 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.3 26.0 26.2 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 130 123 117 117 116 116 114 119 117 119 129 134 138 141 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 130 123 117 117 116 116 114 119 117 119 129 134 138 141 134 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 76 76 72 68 64 61 64 62 62 62 61 61 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 114 100 105 105 93 73 57 39 34 40 39 27 8 -16 -19 -63 200 MB DIV 55 68 65 30 17 -3 1 -15 -29 26 51 50 46 22 5 13 24 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -5 -2 3 -1 0 6 1 5 2 2 7 0 12 6 0 LAND (KM) 680 766 889 1050 1197 1517 1764 1740 1477 1248 1042 952 621 533 70 0 134 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.3 27.8 31.1 34.5 37.8 41.3 45.0 48.9 52.9 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 18 19 19 20 21 21 22 21 18 HEAT CONTENT 14 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 21 27 25 61 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 329 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 23. 29. 33. 40. 42. 43. 42. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 21.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.1% 5.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 35 39 42 48 54 58 65 67 68 67 60 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 37 40 46 52 56 63 65 66 65 58 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 32 35 41 47 51 58 60 61 60 53 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 34 40 44 51 53 54 53 46 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT