* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 72 77 80 85 82 85 87 85 82 83 85 88 90 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 72 77 80 85 82 85 87 85 82 83 85 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 68 73 80 85 88 89 91 91 88 86 87 91 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 3 8 9 7 5 9 8 10 2 10 8 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 8 6 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 18 15 291 290 304 295 328 277 313 276 307 247 284 268 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 148 148 147 144 150 152 154 150 150 147 150 154 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 148 148 147 144 150 152 154 150 150 145 149 153 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 53 55 53 57 58 58 61 63 61 61 63 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 11 12 13 11 9 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 29 27 31 26 19 34 34 58 54 68 62 59 39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -5 2 -5 1 25 40 52 33 41 44 40 17 27 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -8 -9 -7 9 6 16 19 20 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 847 782 716 645 594 574 454 175 267 367 302 257 242 101 216 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.5 48.6 49.9 51.2 54.0 56.9 60.1 63.2 66.1 68.9 71.6 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 32 32 37 39 32 55 41 45 52 63 59 104 46 96 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. 0. -4. -4. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 30. 27. 30. 32. 30. 27. 28. 30. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.9 46.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 26.5% 15.8% 12.9% 11.8% 20.0% 24.8% 28.9% Logistic: 7.9% 22.3% 19.0% 10.8% 3.9% 10.2% 8.9% 14.3% Bayesian: 4.3% 13.1% 8.2% 1.5% 0.6% 3.1% 3.4% 2.1% Consensus: 6.7% 20.6% 14.3% 8.4% 5.4% 11.1% 12.4% 15.1% DTOPS: 18.0% 36.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 68 72 77 80 85 82 85 87 85 82 83 85 88 90 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 67 72 75 80 77 80 82 80 77 78 80 83 85 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 64 67 72 69 72 74 72 69 70 72 75 77 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 54 57 62 59 62 64 62 59 60 62 65 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT