* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALPHA AL242020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 44 43 42 42 40 37 34 30 27 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 34 31 34 34 34 32 32 30 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 34 31 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 30 21 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 267 262 204 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.3 17.5 18.6 21.5 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 75 78 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 70 72 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.1 4.2 3.7 1.1 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 61 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 10 8 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 165 171 163 118 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 23 29 28 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 4 8 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 6 -97 -115 41 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 41.3 42.6 44.0 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 9.0 7.4 5.9 4.2 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -4. -11. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -29. -36. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.9 9.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL242020 ALPHA 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL242020 ALPHA 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 34 31 34 34 34 32 32 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 44 44 44 42 42 40 38 35 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 44 44 42 42 40 38 35 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 33 33 31 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT