* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 46 52 52 50 46 44 41 33 28 V (KT) LAND 35 32 38 41 44 50 50 49 44 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 36 37 38 39 38 35 33 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 13 20 20 21 28 23 23 11 12 31 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 4 2 -3 -1 0 -2 14 2 0 SHEAR DIR 248 251 236 229 235 228 237 241 258 238 269 226 225 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 21.7 19.6 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 132 131 129 123 124 123 119 87 80 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 120 118 117 115 108 106 105 105 79 73 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 8 5 10 7 10 3 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 70 67 67 51 48 46 47 49 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 19 20 23 21 20 16 14 13 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 83 78 71 106 63 68 2 12 19 11 -13 200 MB DIV 107 85 111 120 87 93 48 32 -3 18 65 51 67 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 1 6 5 9 -2 -2 -3 -1 17 -1 LAND (KM) -31 -31 67 150 233 423 233 156 120 -60 -388 -555 -722 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 8 6 7 12 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 54 19 6 9 9 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 8. 6. 0. -3. -6. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 17. 15. 11. 9. 6. -2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 87.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.62 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.6% 9.2% 5.4% 4.5% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 1.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 38 41 44 50 50 49 44 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 40 43 46 52 52 51 46 38 32 30 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 43 42 37 29 23 21 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 34 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT