* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/09/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 27 25 22 19 18 17 17 19 21 25 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 42 45 49 51 42 36 29 24 20 15 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -7 -8 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 1 3 10 SHEAR DIR 7 11 4 8 11 12 5 347 308 291 280 279 291 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.1 24.9 21.0 17.4 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 119 121 120 120 121 124 117 108 87 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 97 101 102 101 99 101 105 102 96 80 74 74 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -57.0 -57.7 -58.7 -59.3 -59.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 36 37 39 43 52 60 67 65 58 56 59 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 58 44 42 49 46 31 -7 -21 -45 -59 -26 200 MB DIV -59 -41 -34 -47 -43 -27 -5 26 34 71 57 41 25 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 3 31 27 65 87 132 LAND (KM) 1704 1717 1746 1764 1778 1766 1720 1576 1343 1011 672 800 1331 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.3 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.6 31.9 34.2 37.6 41.2 44.0 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.5 52.4 53.0 53.5 54.2 54.7 54.9 54.7 53.2 49.6 43.6 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 2 4 9 15 20 24 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 10 11 9 10 11 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -15. -22. -27. -31. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -17. -19. -18. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 50.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/09/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -44.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/09/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/09/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT