* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/09/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 36 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 36 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 38 34 31 28 27 27 26 28 32 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 35 41 44 42 32 33 48 39 31 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -5 -3 -2 -7 -4 -1 -5 2 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 315 348 360 8 2 1 347 319 286 278 254 245 253 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.3 26.2 25.1 24.1 15.1 9.7 7.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 115 114 112 110 114 115 107 102 72 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 99 98 95 92 94 96 93 90 69 66 66 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -57.2 -57.5 -58.6 -58.8 -59.2 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.0 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 42 44 46 53 62 68 67 58 51 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 13 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 55 57 32 22 36 33 22 5 -16 -22 35 200 MB DIV -19 -42 -40 -35 -29 -28 -28 18 34 71 49 67 58 700-850 TADV 7 5 0 -3 1 -2 1 8 27 53 42 62 53 LAND (KM) 1754 1702 1652 1616 1584 1567 1498 1384 1162 820 401 -4 308 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.5 32.6 33.0 33.9 35.9 39.1 43.2 47.1 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.5 49.5 50.5 51.5 53.0 53.8 54.4 54.9 55.6 55.6 54.0 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 5 4 7 13 19 21 21 23 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -14. -22. -30. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -28. -30. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 47.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/09/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/09/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/09/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 40 36 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 38 34 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT