* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/08/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 37 32 28 26 25 25 25 26 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 22 25 26 36 40 50 44 39 35 40 34 35 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -5 -3 -6 -8 -5 -1 0 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 289 318 347 359 7 4 4 346 321 286 267 252 252 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.8 26.8 26.4 24.8 24.5 13.6 7.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 113 115 113 111 119 119 118 106 105 70 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 97 98 97 94 98 99 101 93 92 67 65 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.8 -57.4 -58.3 -59.1 -58.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 41 41 49 56 64 69 65 55 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 52 55 60 28 30 45 46 3 -25 -45 -33 200 MB DIV -7 -20 -42 -34 -36 -37 -20 -3 35 65 71 57 55 700-850 TADV 13 1 3 1 0 -2 -1 1 19 55 41 57 69 LAND (KM) 1772 1715 1662 1622 1610 1611 1588 1522 1377 1096 712 292 261 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.5 33.8 36.6 40.3 44.1 47.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.9 48.9 50.0 51.0 52.8 53.9 54.6 54.9 54.8 54.2 52.6 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 3 5 10 17 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -18. -24. -28. -31. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 46.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 8.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/08/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 39 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT