* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/08/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 44 42 36 28 21 15 17 18 18 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 44 42 36 28 21 15 17 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 41 38 33 30 29 29 29 30 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 22 24 25 35 43 43 36 40 48 34 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 273 282 317 343 356 352 358 345 322 283 261 244 228 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.3 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.5 26.6 25.7 24.3 20.4 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 116 113 114 113 111 116 118 111 102 84 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 99 99 97 98 96 92 95 98 95 90 77 66 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -57.4 -57.3 -58.3 -58.6 -58.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 44 43 46 55 63 70 63 51 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 8 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 67 60 55 55 56 35 29 39 38 44 44 27 -11 200 MB DIV 7 4 -25 -30 -33 -31 -21 -26 16 51 42 47 67 700-850 TADV 18 10 0 2 0 2 0 2 6 17 30 25 29 LAND (KM) 1831 1793 1740 1674 1620 1562 1555 1512 1432 1257 941 541 201 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.4 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.7 32.7 32.8 33.3 34.8 37.5 41.3 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.9 46.5 47.3 48.3 49.4 51.5 53.1 54.0 54.8 55.4 56.5 57.2 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 8 5 3 6 11 17 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -21. -29. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -12. -19. -25. -23. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.2 45.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/08/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 44 42 36 28 21 15 17 18 18 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 42 40 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT