* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 46 43 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 46 43 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 42 42 42 38 33 30 29 29 29 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 29 25 23 26 32 42 40 34 47 50 38 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -4 -5 -1 -4 -3 -4 -6 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 262 267 275 284 306 348 352 354 335 308 273 254 253 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 24.9 24.6 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 112 115 118 120 116 113 110 112 105 105 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 91 94 98 102 102 98 94 91 94 91 92 68 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -56.6 -56.8 -57.7 -57.4 -58.5 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 42 44 45 45 45 47 57 65 67 58 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 19 19 17 16 13 11 10 10 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 32 61 76 65 57 64 34 25 31 43 42 14 8 200 MB DIV -5 -5 14 9 -8 -59 -27 -23 -12 47 44 64 47 700-850 TADV 1 19 12 4 -1 2 1 2 7 14 29 43 43 LAND (KM) 1891 1908 1896 1850 1774 1620 1524 1479 1433 1302 1095 731 328 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.7 30.7 31.0 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.4 33.8 34.9 36.7 39.8 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.1 45.5 46.0 46.8 48.8 50.8 52.4 53.3 53.9 54.6 56.1 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 7 9 10 8 5 4 8 13 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -12. -19. -27. -35. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -14. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -5. -12. -20. -25. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.9 45.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.24 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/08/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 46 46 43 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 44 41 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 39 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT