* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 48 49 49 47 40 31 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 48 49 49 47 40 31 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 45 45 41 36 30 27 24 22 Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 36 25 25 23 31 41 51 44 37 49 57 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -6 -3 -2 -3 -7 -3 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 249 259 269 281 290 342 351 357 352 320 301 280 260 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.5 25.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 110 113 117 120 119 115 111 112 109 109 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 91 92 95 99 103 101 96 92 93 92 95 75 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -56.7 -57.1 -57.4 -57.9 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 40 43 43 44 43 55 65 70 64 53 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 38 59 73 69 53 49 25 38 43 47 18 27 200 MB DIV 8 -9 -2 19 11 -27 -11 -47 -15 -19 60 70 86 700-850 TADV -1 5 25 13 2 0 2 4 3 12 24 57 74 LAND (KM) 1853 1874 1902 1901 1855 1713 1600 1550 1501 1400 1245 1000 567 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.6 30.9 31.8 32.5 32.8 33.2 34.1 35.5 37.7 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.2 45.3 45.7 46.2 48.0 50.0 51.6 52.6 52.9 53.1 54.0 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 7 10 8 6 4 6 9 16 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -22. -28. -36. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 0. -9. -18. -25. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.2 45.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.23 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/07/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 48 49 49 47 40 31 22 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 45 46 46 44 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 41 41 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT