* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 38 38 34 38 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 38 38 34 38 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 30 30 29 27 25 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 12 13 12 15 23 29 35 38 27 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -1 6 0 2 -1 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 242 207 229 239 227 196 204 203 205 212 206 219 213 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.6 28.1 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 117 115 116 117 120 123 123 132 138 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 107 104 104 105 108 111 111 118 123 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 57 49 43 40 40 39 41 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 16 17 15 14 13 11 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 58 37 35 43 35 42 20 14 14 -11 -38 200 MB DIV 22 29 43 37 20 46 23 27 3 19 7 -27 -18 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 2 1 2 4 7 11 7 10 5 3 LAND (KM) 1534 1629 1706 1751 1798 1873 2002 2112 2249 2386 2465 2230 2010 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 16 14 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -7. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -5. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 9. 13. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.0 31.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.1% 11.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.1% 4.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.3% 5.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.5% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 38 38 34 38 37 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 35 36 36 32 36 35 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 30 31 31 27 31 30 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 24 24 20 24 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT