* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 43 45 44 41 39 36 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 43 45 44 41 39 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 26 27 31 33 32 30 27 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 7 8 8 16 25 31 36 32 27 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 6 2 2 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 346 152 208 233 172 205 210 217 221 231 228 227 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.8 28.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 119 120 119 118 117 120 119 123 134 138 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 111 112 108 107 106 108 107 112 121 123 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 64 60 55 52 45 45 46 46 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 17 16 15 13 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 62 60 44 44 43 45 31 20 15 5 -4 200 MB DIV 58 41 45 56 40 50 34 31 16 5 11 -17 -27 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 4 2 3 5 4 6 9 9 11 6 LAND (KM) 1458 1538 1618 1717 1808 1872 1954 2066 2164 2290 2457 2457 2267 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 6 5 7 7 7 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 9 8 7 5 2 4 3 7 16 13 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 4. -1. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 20. 19. 16. 14. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 31.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.5% 11.4% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 14.0% 6.1% 1.7% 0.7% 3.3% 2.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 10.0% 5.9% 3.1% 0.3% 1.1% 4.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 43 45 44 41 39 36 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 41 43 42 39 37 34 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 37 39 38 35 33 30 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 29 31 30 27 25 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT