* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 44 43 40 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 44 43 40 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 29 31 31 29 26 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 5 17 23 33 32 35 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -2 4 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 283 293 275 208 224 199 194 211 220 220 236 234 225 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.7 28.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 118 119 119 119 117 119 119 121 133 139 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 110 111 109 107 105 107 108 109 119 126 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 64 67 67 63 57 51 45 41 42 44 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 16 17 14 13 11 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 89 71 68 68 66 40 52 37 35 25 19 22 6 200 MB DIV 69 70 48 52 65 33 35 9 22 6 23 -20 -25 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 2 4 2 2 4 6 8 8 10 4 LAND (KM) 1401 1487 1575 1666 1758 1872 1957 2049 2165 2259 2365 2482 2203 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 9 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 10 7 5 2 4 4 5 20 14 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 0. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 19. 18. 15. 12. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 30.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.0% 11.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 19.1% 8.8% 3.1% 1.4% 4.8% 2.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 11.8% 6.9% 3.7% 0.5% 1.6% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 42 44 43 40 37 37 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 41 43 42 39 36 36 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 39 38 35 32 32 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 31 30 27 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT