* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 55 55 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 55 55 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 50 49 47 45 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 5 4 7 11 11 17 18 23 25 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -4 0 7 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 69 47 298 245 192 209 178 202 206 226 238 247 282 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 119 117 119 116 116 118 118 116 123 130 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 111 109 109 105 103 105 107 105 111 115 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 67 69 63 57 53 49 48 45 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 15 16 16 17 14 13 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 92 89 73 73 72 51 38 37 19 17 31 8 -11 200 MB DIV 56 68 62 58 63 68 50 27 17 31 30 3 -39 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -2 3 1 4 4 6 13 14 15 7 LAND (KM) 1290 1390 1471 1552 1617 1698 1737 1759 1792 1822 1900 2026 2211 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.7 23.6 26.0 28.3 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.4 31.1 31.8 32.3 33.1 33.6 33.9 34.3 34.6 35.1 35.8 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 5 3 5 9 11 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 7 9 7 11 7 6 7 5 0 2 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 22. 25. 25. 24. 24. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 29.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 20.5% 14.7% 11.1% 8.4% 11.2% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 17.5% 7.4% 1.8% 0.6% 4.5% 5.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 4.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 14.1% 7.6% 4.4% 3.1% 5.3% 6.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 55 55 54 54 56 56 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 48 51 51 50 50 52 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 45 45 44 44 46 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 36 36 35 35 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT