* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 54 57 58 56 54 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 54 57 58 56 54 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 50 51 49 47 44 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 5 5 8 10 18 23 33 31 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 4 3 3 1 2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 44 41 344 282 268 228 184 205 224 235 246 251 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 120 120 118 119 119 118 120 119 122 130 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 113 113 110 109 108 107 109 108 110 115 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 67 65 66 64 56 49 43 39 39 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20 19 18 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 89 96 92 78 75 77 51 46 39 41 27 27 22 200 MB DIV 41 63 82 65 59 71 27 30 24 18 -2 6 12 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 5 5 9 8 9 8 LAND (KM) 1182 1274 1368 1464 1561 1765 1878 1937 2058 2164 2250 2355 2473 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 8 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 5 9 7 6 5 3 5 3 6 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 24. 27. 28. 26. 24. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 28.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.49 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 19.8% 14.2% 9.3% 9.3% 11.1% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 13.9% 5.6% 1.4% 0.5% 5.0% 7.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 5.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 13.0% 6.9% 3.6% 3.3% 5.5% 7.7% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 43 48 54 57 58 56 54 53 50 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 39 44 50 53 54 52 50 49 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 43 46 47 45 43 42 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 34 37 38 36 34 33 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT