* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 54 57 58 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 54 57 58 55 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 41 41 40 38 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 6 6 9 18 18 21 23 29 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 30 4 349 304 256 215 213 201 209 224 242 253 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.0 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 127 118 113 114 115 112 115 112 114 121 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 121 112 106 106 105 101 102 100 101 107 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 68 68 66 64 58 51 46 45 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 17 16 17 18 20 20 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 88 86 85 89 81 55 55 32 37 19 32 33 7 200 MB DIV 65 68 73 80 79 47 62 39 57 18 2 2 12 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 0 0 1 4 5 8 12 11 11 LAND (KM) 937 1021 1085 1153 1216 1390 1497 1609 1699 1757 1805 1855 1908 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.4 19.7 20.8 21.7 22.7 24.1 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.0 27.6 28.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.5 33.4 34.0 34.4 34.7 34.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 6 1 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 380 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. -1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 33. 30. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 26.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 20.3% 14.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 19.0% 6.9% 1.7% 0.8% 6.5% 7.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 13.9% 7.2% 3.5% 0.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/02/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 54 57 58 55 51 47 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 45 51 54 55 52 48 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 39 45 48 49 46 42 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 30 36 39 40 37 33 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT