* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 38 44 51 55 62 65 64 62 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 38 44 51 55 62 65 64 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 43 45 45 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 2 5 9 12 14 15 18 18 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 0 -1 2 0 4 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 98 91 6 317 273 271 202 217 191 209 230 254 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.5 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 129 119 112 116 117 115 115 115 116 117 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 123 112 105 108 107 104 101 102 103 104 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 66 65 63 58 52 49 45 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 16 17 17 18 18 20 21 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 90 100 95 89 92 63 55 42 39 32 15 14 0 200 MB DIV 57 67 74 65 74 59 48 42 42 41 0 15 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -2 0 -3 0 2 4 8 13 15 11 LAND (KM) 827 946 1044 1135 1239 1431 1599 1724 1821 1870 1896 1922 1941 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 18.0 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.6 21.6 23.0 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.9 30.5 32.2 33.5 34.5 35.0 35.3 35.6 35.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 3 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 1 0 3 5 3 4 3 2 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 4. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 19. 26. 30. 37. 40. 39. 37. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 25.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 38 44 51 55 62 65 64 62 57 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 35 41 48 52 59 62 61 59 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 35 42 46 53 56 55 53 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 35 42 45 44 42 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT