* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 29 25 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 27 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 26 24 24 26 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 23 27 25 34 37 35 32 30 24 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 8 3 3 0 4 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 269 263 257 265 261 259 274 269 271 265 289 282 304 SST (C) 28.6 27.8 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.9 30.1 28.2 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 134 127 129 137 151 173 141 157 147 138 132 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 120 112 114 121 134 157 126 137 122 115 110 94 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -52.5 -52.3 -53.3 -54.2 -55.0 -55.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 14 13 11 14 9 10 5 9 1 4 0 700-500 MB RH 77 73 70 66 66 62 63 69 76 74 68 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 6 6 10 6 -2 14 5 16 27 28 6 18 200 MB DIV 65 82 104 95 75 84 51 63 16 77 0 53 11 700-850 TADV 0 4 14 8 24 38 35 33 18 7 17 21 6 LAND (KM) 95 31 20 6 0 94 47 -138 -256 -457 -590 -759 -896 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.8 27.5 29.3 31.2 33.0 34.6 36.3 38.6 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.5 97.6 97.5 97.2 96.1 94.0 91.2 88.2 85.9 85.0 84.9 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 8 9 12 14 15 15 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 5 5 8 11 22 3 4 3 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -13. -20. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 96.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.0% 8.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.3% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 27 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 29 28 25 25 25 25 26 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 23 20 20 20 20 21 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT