* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 28 29 27 23 23 20 21 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 20 25 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 16 22 21 33 33 36 29 23 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 1 5 -1 4 0 1 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 273 282 279 273 277 272 280 274 281 275 283 286 308 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.4 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.3 28.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 146 147 144 139 143 168 161 150 141 136 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 131 132 128 124 128 152 144 131 119 113 102 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -53.5 -54.2 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 14 12 13 12 11 8 9 4 7 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 71 67 63 59 63 67 75 75 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 12 9 14 7 8 11 -7 17 20 30 33 200 MB DIV 40 63 81 97 96 78 77 27 54 34 32 21 42 700-850 TADV 3 0 4 11 4 28 36 27 24 30 -2 16 11 LAND (KM) 118 83 78 102 102 101 193 88 -28 -203 -380 -390 -503 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.0 23.7 25.4 27.1 28.9 30.6 32.3 33.6 35.2 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.4 96.8 96.8 96.8 96.3 95.0 92.8 89.9 86.8 84.6 83.2 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 12 15 16 14 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 15 20 20 11 10 15 6 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. 3. 0. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.0 95.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 8.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 27 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 27 28 25 25 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 23 24 21 21 22 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT