* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 23 25 27 29 28 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 23 25 27 29 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 18 24 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 19 24 29 38 35 42 27 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 0 2 3 4 0 2 -6 6 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 262 287 287 274 272 274 274 275 268 276 263 292 297 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.4 29.7 28.5 29.0 28.4 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 148 145 141 143 165 145 153 142 140 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 130 133 130 126 127 147 127 133 120 116 109 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.8 -53.4 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 12 14 11 13 9 11 7 10 5 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 70 66 62 62 64 68 72 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 41 34 14 11 7 -3 -28 -16 -17 22 0 0 200 MB DIV 67 76 72 77 103 98 70 42 50 1 63 -20 52 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 7 6 15 31 28 24 27 13 5 11 LAND (KM) 155 147 116 138 143 128 195 103 -36 -100 -235 -289 -264 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.8 22.6 23.4 25.2 27.1 28.8 30.4 31.6 32.5 33.1 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.4 96.4 96.1 94.9 93.0 90.6 88.1 85.5 83.8 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 14 19 22 13 11 14 3 4 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -6. -15. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.7 95.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 17.1% 7.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 23 25 27 29 26 26 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 22 24 26 28 25 25 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 23 25 22 22 23 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT