* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 30 29 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 21 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 12 13 27 25 38 35 38 23 18 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 2 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 287 268 282 281 283 283 271 275 278 281 283 280 275 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.5 29.9 29.5 28.6 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 145 144 146 140 141 145 169 162 147 142 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 129 131 130 132 125 126 129 151 144 128 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 12 12 13 12 12 8 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 69 68 65 60 58 60 62 68 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 37 28 11 7 4 -10 -15 -48 -4 -10 -8 200 MB DIV 68 82 77 65 71 79 67 65 8 67 6 43 29 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 0 7 -1 16 29 26 26 37 0 8 LAND (KM) 165 171 163 145 137 173 170 178 39 -48 -167 -248 -108 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.3 24.0 25.8 27.6 29.3 30.8 32.0 32.5 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.0 95.4 95.8 96.1 96.1 95.5 94.2 92.0 89.3 86.2 83.6 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 8 8 10 12 14 14 13 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 14 18 18 12 13 17 17 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -4. -11. -16. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.1 94.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 14.0% 5.3% 1.1% 0.4% 1.6% 2.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 30 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 27 28 29 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 23 24 25 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT