* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 32 33 33 32 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 34 32 33 33 32 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 29 28 26 25 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 8 11 12 18 24 30 38 36 36 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 2 3 6 9 5 2 2 -4 5 -4 SHEAR DIR 305 269 254 266 282 271 276 274 282 275 292 273 306 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.6 29.9 29.6 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 138 141 147 142 139 146 169 163 149 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 127 124 127 130 126 123 129 149 145 129 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 11 10 14 12 15 11 14 9 12 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 71 71 70 65 60 58 57 62 65 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 29 28 35 26 6 11 -9 -11 -24 -49 -16 -27 200 MB DIV 72 78 84 69 60 78 91 49 24 29 -12 56 -19 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 0 1 5 7 21 30 27 36 19 12 LAND (KM) 148 133 110 88 53 92 116 154 176 48 -40 -148 -278 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.7 23.1 24.6 26.2 27.7 29.2 30.6 31.8 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.3 95.8 96.3 96.7 96.9 96.5 95.7 94.1 92.0 89.6 86.8 84.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 8 7 8 10 11 12 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 9 10 20 15 10 13 16 14 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -8. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.4% 13.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 17.0% 6.9% 2.0% 0.7% 3.7% 3.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 12.0% 6.7% 3.5% 0.2% 1.3% 4.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 34 32 33 33 32 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 30 31 31 30 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 25 26 26 25 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 18 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT