* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 48 55 59 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 48 55 59 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.7 94.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9999.0 30.1 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9999.0 0.0 to 151.8 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9999.0 27.5 to 139.6 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9999.0 -29.7 to 185.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 895.4 to -55.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.7% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 48 55 59 62 64 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 40 46 53 57 60 62 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 35 41 48 52 55 57 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 27 33 40 44 47 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT