* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 38 36 36 32 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 38 32 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 30 31 29 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 7 14 16 25 31 40 46 38 30 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -1 3 5 6 2 0 4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 256 269 286 264 254 272 258 269 268 281 275 277 282 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 27.3 27.4 28.6 29.0 27.7 28.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 144 143 144 126 129 146 153 135 152 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 130 132 131 129 129 111 114 129 138 121 135 119 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 13 10 15 12 14 11 14 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 70 72 71 69 66 62 60 63 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 43 32 26 36 11 11 13 -3 -5 1 24 200 MB DIV 71 77 64 71 70 55 79 62 42 17 42 11 77 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 2 6 -1 4 12 32 34 40 37 43 LAND (KM) 177 199 191 165 114 61 20 -23 54 4 -211 -371 -532 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.8 24.2 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.7 34.0 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.3 94.9 95.5 96.1 97.2 97.6 97.5 96.6 94.7 91.9 88.6 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 11 14 17 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 14 13 15 4 4 9 14 2 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -3. -11. -18. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 11. 11. 7. 3. 1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 19.4% 13.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 18.5% 7.7% 1.8% 0.6% 3.1% 2.7% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 13.1% 7.2% 3.5% 0.2% 1.1% 4.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 35 38 32 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 32 35 29 30 26 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 27 30 24 25 21 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 21 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT