* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 37 40 42 44 42 40 37 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 29 28 27 27 30 27 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 29 28 27 27 30 30 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 4 3 9 13 24 22 31 34 35 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 -1 4 -2 5 0 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 304 256 260 306 270 282 268 270 264 278 273 287 288 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.8 27.1 26.3 26.6 28.1 28.7 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 137 130 132 123 115 119 138 148 144 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 127 124 118 119 109 103 106 123 133 133 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 11 10 11 13 13 13 15 11 12 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 71 73 73 71 65 62 55 53 56 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 58 66 51 56 26 29 -8 3 14 -25 10 200 MB DIV 46 76 72 69 52 48 61 53 30 25 11 36 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 -6 3 1 18 36 21 53 63 LAND (KM) 129 130 107 64 18 -53 -73 -72 -36 73 59 -113 -267 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 21.2 22.4 23.5 25.1 26.7 28.5 30.8 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.8 95.4 96.0 96.7 97.9 98.6 98.5 97.9 96.6 94.9 92.1 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 14 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 9 5 7 3 0 1 7 9 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 17. 15. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.7 94.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.9% 13.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 30.3% 16.0% 5.2% 1.7% 9.9% 11.5% 8.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 3.4% 17.2% 10.0% 4.7% 0.6% 3.4% 8.2% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 29 28 27 27 30 27 24 26 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 25 24 23 23 26 23 20 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 20 19 18 18 21 18 15 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT